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The hottest oil price rises at a high level, and t

2022-10-04

Detail

As of the end of this week, China's plastic price index was 972.70 points, up 24.07 points from the same period last week. The China Plastics warehouse receipt index closed at 936.52 points, up 32.59 points from the same period last week

I. upstream Review

last Friday, the U.S. economy recovered in the third quarter, coupled with a sharp decline in refined oil inventories, and the international crude oil inertia rose, soaring for seven consecutive trading days, with an overall increase of about 13%. On Monday, the exchange rate of the US dollar fell, US stocks rose, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average weighed more than 10000 points. The optimistic atmosphere pushed the oil price higher for eight consecutive days, closing above US $79. From the next few days to the weekend, oil prices rose and fell. Under the influence of long and short factors such as lower than expected economic data, U.S. stocks fell, crude oil inventory growth, unemployment data release, etc., oil prices continued to rise after a slight decline, and broke through the $80/barrel mark on Wednesday, with a gratifying rise

as of the week of October 22, New York light oil futures for the first month closed at $81.19/barrel, up $3.61 from the previous week. London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures for the first month closed at $79.51, up $5.06 from the previous week

II. Spot market

this week, most domestic PE oil can be used as static transmission medium. The market continues the bull market of last week, and the price rises by yuan/ton, among which the linear rise is stronger. Crude oil is the most important factor affecting the market trend this week. At the beginning of the week, boosted by the oil price hitting 8 consecutive positive, the PE market rose with the help of the price, and the quotation rebounded slightly. Merchants did not dare to ship at a low price, and the hype atmosphere appeared. Due to the increased possibility of correction after the continuous rise of oil prices, some traders are worried and still remain cautious, and most shipments follow the market. Affected by the unexpected surge in crude oil futures on Wednesday, the sales companies raised their ex factory quotations again, with strong support, which has become a hot spot in the market. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream, there are fewer inquiries, and there is resistance to high-level transactions

III Technical analysis

warehouse receipt variety

settlement price (yuan/ton)

lldpe warehouse receipt total transaction (batch)

LLDPE warehouse receipt order quantity (batch)

this weekend

last weekend

rise and fall

this week

last week

increase and decrease

this weekend

last weekend

increase and decrease

ll0911

10492

10246

+246

426

517

-91

326

325

ll0912

10393

10170

+223

as of Friday's close, the LLDPE warehouse receipt index was at 1066.78 points, up 22.26 points from the same period last week

the LLDPE warehouse receipt market rose slightly this week, and the physical focus at the end of the period was higher than that at the beginning of the week. On Monday, LLDPE warehouse receipts opened slightly higher, and the early market rose and fell below yesterday's settlement price, with a poor trend. After 10:00, the peak turned. In the publicity of the automotive industry, the index began to rise step by step, and ended up slightly in the late afternoon. On Tuesday, the warehouse receipts rose and fell back. After the market peaked, it fell slightly, but the rate of decline was slow. In the mid session, the market stopped falling and stabilized, the horizontal oscillation extended, and the mid session ended up. On Wednesday, the market opened low in the middle range. The intraday market trend was stable and did not continue to fall. There was support below, and the middle range closed down in the late trading. The warehouse orders opened sharply higher on Thursday, and the market fell slightly in the early stage, but soon stabilized and maintained a sharp rise. In the afternoon opening, there were few transactions on the market, the market remained stable, and the market closed up sharply in the late afternoon. On Friday, LLDPE warehouse orders opened sharply lower, and the market gradually oscillated upward after covering the previous decline, and the index rose. In late trading, it rose slightly and closed up in the middle

According to the daily K-line chart of the index, the K-line entity combination closed 1 positive and 4 negative on this Sunday, and the entity at the end of the period intersected with the 60 day moving average. Overall, the market oscillated higher. Weekly K-line shows that this week's physical closing short positive line, the MACD index hovers high, the green column shortens, KDJ Hualu Hengsheng announced in the evening of March 18 that the index continues to rise after building a fork, the opening of the boll line is significantly narrowed, and the price line is significantly moved up. This week's market trading was average, with trading volume reported 426 batches, a sharp decline year-on-year last week. The order quantity was reported as 326 batches, a slight increase of 1 batch compared with last week

IV. future forecast

in terms of spot goods, crude oil is strong, ethylene prices are basically stable, petrochemical manufacturers are listed at high prices, market prices continue to rise, and downstream demand is still flat. In terms of warehouse receipts, LLDPE warehouse receipts continued to rise today, and the market rose well. It is expected that the market will continue to rise slightly in the later period

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