The hottest oil price of finished products will ri

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The oil price of finished products will rise the most in the year, and the retail profit of diesel will hit a three-year low

recently, Saudi Arabia and Russia have reiterated their support for extending the production reduction agreement. Coupled with the boost of Saudi Arabia and surrounding political events to the market, the international oil price has increased significantly

however, Baker Hughes' data released last Friday showed that the number of wells drilled in the United States increased by 9 to 738, the largest increase since June 2017, suggesting that U.S. output will continue to increase, casting a shadow on the space for oil price rise

although the rise of oil price depends on whether the experimental results meet the requirements, the turbulence in the Middle East and the extension of the OPEC production reduction agreement are expected, and the oil price has entered a volatile upward channel

zhuyinghua, an analyst at Zhongyu information, told securities that at present, the international crude oil futures price may remain high and fluctuate, and the new round of change rate continues to operate positively. The news is still supported by the domestic refined oil market. In the later stage, the news and fundamentals are still positive, and it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will remain at a high level

according to the calculation of zhuochuang information, as of November 10, the tensile testing machine industry has developed rapidly. The change rate of reference crude oil on the seventh working day in China is 7.49%, corresponding to the increase of 258 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel oil. The price adjustment window is 24:00 on November 16. The equivalent price increase is 92 # increase of 0.2 yuan/liter and 0 # diesel increase of 0.22 yuan/liter. This increase will be the largest increase since this year, and there are still three working days from the price adjustment window. Due to the small trading volume at the beginning of this cycle, the starting point of crude oil change rate is high, and international crude oil may continue to show high consolidation, so this round of oil price increase is expected to exceed 300 yuan/ton

in this regard, Yang Xia, product oil analyst of zhuochuang information, told securities that since this pricing cycle, the international crude oil has shown an overall upward trend. Although there has been a correction in the middle, due to the high starting point of the initial crude oil change rate of this cycle, the domestic reference crude oil change rate is still rising at a positive high level. The "second consecutive rise" of this round of product oil is a foregone conclusion, and will be the largest increase since this year

"in view of the expectation that the fundamentals of the crude oil market will improve, the international oil price may remain high in the short term, and there is no lack of possibility of rise. On November 16, the final range of China's gasoline and diesel retail prices is expected to hit the 300 yuan/ton mark, which will undoubtedly become the largest increase in the year." Li Yang, an analyst at jinlianchuang, also told securities

it should be mentioned that the expectation of the increase in the oil price of finished products shrouded the market, resulting in the higher wholesale price of domestic refined oil. In addition, diesel is in the peak season of traditional demand, and the tight resources in some regions have significantly boosted the sales units, which has led to the narrowing of the retail gross profit of gas stations

according to the monitoring data of jinlianchuang, as of November 10, the wholesale and retail price difference of domestic 0# diesel oil was 223 yuan/ton, a new low since 2015. Because the sales enterprises cannot sell more than the wholesale price limit to gas station customers, it means that the actual profit of most domestic gas station users is only 300 yuan/ton. Combined with other costs, the actual operation is difficult to make profits; The wholesale and retail price difference of domestic 92# gasoline is 1860 yuan/ton. Since this year, the growth rate of domestic gasoline consumption has fallen, and the wholesale shipment of gasoline has been greatly affected. Since October, the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel in some regions has reversed and has continued to this day. Therefore, compared with diesel retail, the profit is still relatively rich

in addition, the theoretical profit reduction of selling diesel oil from local refineries in Shandong is greater. Shandong local refining 0# diesel wholesale and retail price difference was 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 556 yuan/ton compared with October 19

Yang Xia pointed out that the further narrowing of the price difference between wholesale and retail sales of refined oil means the decline in the gross profit of gasoline and diesel, which has led to the reduction of domestic gas station preferences again. Still take Shandong Province - may 2013 district as an example, Sinopec gas stations adopt preferential policies for a fixed number of days a week, and the preferential margin is reduced to about 0.7 yuan/liter. Private gas stations have little change in the preferential range, which is also maintained at 1 yuan/liter -1.2 yuan/liter for a fixed number of days a week

she also believes that although the retail price limit of refined oil is increased this round, the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel oil in the sales unit will also rise, and the range may continue to exceed the retail increase. Therefore, the wholesale and retail price difference of domestic refined oil, especially diesel, may still be further narrowed, and the sales profit of gas stations may continue to decline

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