The hottest oil price mechanism needs to be transp

2022-09-22
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The oil price mechanism urgently needs to be transparent. The oil market should break the monopoly. On October 25, 2010, the national development and Reform Commission announced that the prices of gasoline and diesel will be increased by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton respectively from 0:00 on October 26; On December 22, 2010, the domestic refined oil price was raised again, of which the gasoline price was raised by 310 yuan per ton and the diesel price was raised by 300 yuan per ton. On January 21, 2011, China once again ushered in the window period of oil price adjustment, and the oil price will rise again

read the price adjustment several times, highlighting that the new refined oil pricing of the national development and Reform Commission exists in name only, and the national development and Reform Commission has denied its own pricing system

the measures for the administration of oil prices (Trial) (hereinafter referred to as the "measures") issued on May 8, 2009 stipulates that when the moving average price of crude oil in the three places in the international market changes by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the national development and Reform Commission is still monopolized by imported instruments in China's high-end instrument market, and the price department can adjust the prices of gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene and other refined oil products accordingly. This year, the international oil price fluctuated violently, repeatedly breaking through 4%. The market twice rumored that the oil price would be adjusted, but the national development and Reform Commission stood still. This makes the two core standards of the new pricing system - 22 consecutive working days and a moving average price of more than 4% - a blank. In 2017, the U.S. wood plastic composite new material market sales reached nearly $6billion

of course, the NDRC can say that it has not violated its own rules. Because according to the measures, when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the price of domestic refined oil can be adjusted accordingly. Please note that this "can", that is, it is not necessary to adjust, but can be determined according to the market and macroeconomic situation. Moreover, when the international crude oil price is higher than US $80 per barrel, the processing profit margin will be deducted until the refined oil price is calculated based on the processing zero profit. When the price is higher than 130 dollars per barrel, the price of gasoline and diesel will not be raised or less raised in principle. At present, the global crude oil price is always floating at $80, so how to price it naturally "knows"

even if the NDRC acts in strict accordance with the measures, the range of price adjustment is still a mystery. According to the keynote set in the "tax reform plan for oil prices of finished products", the ex factory prices of domestic gasoline and diesel are determined based on the crude oil prices in the international market, plus the average domestic processing costs, taxes and reasonable profits. Dongxiucheng, an insider in the industry, once explained that the ex factory price of the refinery can be determined based on the price of crude oil in the three places, then calculate the CIF price in China, add the port charges, enter the refinery, and the processing costs of the refinery, then add various taxes, and then add a reasonable profit. After the factory price is determined, it will be pushed back until people face the price of the gas station, which is the retail price

when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, only gods can know how much the price adjustment is. In terms of the original oil price, CIF price and port charges, the oil enterprises have made public the tax revenue. Finally, the reasonable profit and expense of the refinery is a confused account. Therefore, it's not a disgrace for market people to guess and make mistakes repeatedly. They didn't want you to know because they were afraid of speculation

if the pricing system is completely transparent, it will give all middlemen and even international financial capital the opportunity to hoard. However, PetroChina, after all, is a listed public company, which needs to be explained to the market. Some PetroChina investors found the following sentence from the "2008 annual general meeting document" issued by PetroChina: on December 18, 2008, the country officially implemented the linkage mechanism between refined oil and crude oil, and the export price of domestic refined oil was determined based on the prices of Brent, Dubai and Xinta crude oil, plus freight, processing costs, taxes and 5% profit margin

now that the profits have been made public, we can calculate the price now. It's no good. Now we add macro considerations and exchange rate factors. To this extent, the author suspects that the NDRC can only be a gentle mother-in-law based on the inflation situation and the strong cooperation between the two oil majors and the public in the field of material experiments

now the national development and Reform Commission is in a dilemma. If it withdraws from the hands of the government, it will form a monopoly price; The so-called marketization is empty talk if the government does not withdraw its hand. Is it true that the national development and Reform Commission has curbed speculation by being so unpredictable? Every time before the time node of market prediction, relevant enterprises begin to store oil on a large scale, or sell on a large scale, and even stop selling in extreme cases. Since October this year, the national demand for refined oil has increased rapidly, the diesel market is tight, the wholesale price is gradually rising, and the wholesale and retail of diesel is upside down. This phenomenon first appeared in southern provinces and gradually spread to northern provinces such as Shandong. So now the best spring testing machine on the market is imported from Japan. The government had to issue a document to crack down on hoarding, but with little effect. Now a price increase order has made hoarders receive fruitful results. Because there is arbitrage space between market price and monopoly price, monopoly price and market price between ex factory price and finished oil price

because China's oil market is a freak between enterprise monopoly and semi market pricing, relevant parties have always defended oil enterprises and pricing mechanism, or monopoly enterprises seek benefits for consumers, or the price of refined oil in China is not higher than that in the United States, and some are ridiculous enough to be refuted, such as comparing the prices of different oil products

the current pricing mechanism is not flattering at both ends. It is better to liberalize crude oil import and set up several large enterprises, and let the national development and Reform Commission maintain market order. Now, consumers are dissatisfied, and enterprises get cheap. Are you tired. Fortunately, in addition to the increase in oil prices, there is another noteworthy thing that brings some hope. According to the national development and Reform Commission, the new refined oil price formation mechanism will be introduced in the near future and will be more transparent. The long-awaited mechanism of transparency and the elimination of monopoly has finally loosened the former aspect

let go of the oil source. I have said countless times that the iron of interest cannot be broken. Reform, difficult! Contact with all walks of life, do not disturb the mind, meditate, read and think, is a good way to benefit. Still paying attention to the social focus, a Li Gang incident can shatter the ten-year efforts to establish government credit, and a Mongolian Iraqi case can reverse the public's credit for national enterprises by ten years

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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