The hottest methanol may not reach the bottom in t

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Methanol may not reach the bottom in the short term

methanol may not reach the bottom in the short term

May 14, 2019

recently, the trading atmosphere in the methanol market has been weak, and the price has continued to fall, which is currently at a relatively low level in the past two years. For the future, the author believes that although the cost side has some support, the methanol market will continue to bottom under the background of the late increase in operating rates, import recovery and poor downstream demand

the supply of coatings is on the rise. The centralized maintenance period of domestic methanol production enterprises is from March to May every year. According to statistics, the actual overhaul capacity of methanol in March this year was 3.4 million tons/year, the actual overhaul capacity in April was 7.2 million tons/year, and the planned overhaul capacity in May was 3.3 million tons/year. Judging from the time node, the peak period of methanol overhaul in spring has passed. From May, the early maintenance devices will be put into production, including 600000 tons/year of China Coal Yuanxing, 1.2 million tons/year of Xinjiang Guanghui, 300000 tons/year of Inner Mongolia Yigao, 600000 tons/year of Inner Mongolia Xinao, etc. This change can also be seen from the operating rate of the methanol industry: since late March, with the spring overhaul in the mainland, the operating rate of the domestic methanol industry has declined from 72% to 60% in mid April, and has recently recovered to about 65%. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase in the later period, and the supply of methanol will increase

imports gradually recovered. In the early stage, there were a lot of maintenance of overseas devices, including Iran ZPC 1.65 million tons/year, Malaysia Petronas 2 × 1.7 million tons/year, Brunei bmc85 million tons/year devices, etc. Therefore, China's methanol import from February to April decreased significantly compared with January. Relevant data show that from January to March, China's methanol imports were 890000 tons, 730000 tons and 670000 tons respectively, and it is expected to be about 600000 tons in April. However, at present, the overseas overhaul units have basically entered the stage of resumption of production, and the two sets of ZPC units in Iran are in normal production. Combined with the crowding out effect of the United States' sanctions on Iran, it is expected that the volume of methanol arrival in Iran will increase in the later period. According to the voyage period, the increase in imports will begin to appear in mid and late May. In Southeast Asia, at present, the Malaysian oil plant is operating at full capacity, and the BMC plant in Brunei resumed work at the end of April. It is expected that the arrival volume of methanol will increase significantly from mid to late May, bringing some pressure to the domestic market

downstream demand continues to be poor. Affected by the particularly serious explosion accident of "3.2 you can see our machine 1 without running too far", this year's dangerous chemical safety inspection 2: the interface on the plug-in controller must be turned off to maintain the high-voltage situation, which has a great impact on the traditional downstream operation of methanol, especially in Shandong and Jiangsu. Since April 9, Shandong Province has carried out a three-month special law enforcement inspection on work safety in key industries such as hazardous chemicals, which has affected the overall domestic and foreign level of local formaldehyde enterprises, and there is a certain gap in the operating rate; In the context of chemical safety regulation in Jiangsu Province, the Subei formaldehyde plant, which was originally scheduled to resume work on April 10, is still in parking. In terms of methanol to olefins, northwest Jiutai MTO plant is still under maintenance after commissioning at the end of March. In addition, the sharp decline in the prices of ethylene and propylene monomers has impacted the economy of methanol to olefins, which is expected to affect the operating rate of MTO units and the commissioning of new units, making it difficult to drive the demand for methanol

to sum up, methanol fundamentals are still weak at present, and it is expected that the future price will continue to fall

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